The monsoon is expected to maintain a healthy spread across the country into early July, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projecting widespread rainfall that could provide a timely boost to kharif sowing, according to a report by Vinson Kurian in businessline. The extended-range outlook for June 25-July 1 indicates rainfall may be normal to above normal over parts of the South Peninsula and North-East India, while the rest of the country may receive below-normal rainfall.
Rainfall to Pick Up in Early July
Conditions are expected to improve significantly during July 2-8, when rainfall is forecast to be normal to above normal across almost the entire country. The IMD has also indicated the possible formation of a cyclonic circulation over the north Bay of Bengal during that period, a feature that could reinforce the monsoon flow over the mainland. businessline had earlier reported a crucial two-week window may open from the last week of June to accelerate kharif sowing after weather-related delays from early in the month.
Vigorous Monsoon Over Central India
While the IMD’s outlook extends only to the second week of July, latest guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provides an early indication of how the rest of the month may evolve. For the week from June 29 to July 6, the ECMWF expects the monsoon to remain vigorous over Central India across Odisha, Vidarbha, north Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and much of Maharashtra, as well as along the west coast.
Heavy rainfall is likely to continue over Konkan-Mumbai and Goa, while Coastal Karnataka and Kerala may receive less intense but widespread rain. Below-normal rainfall during the week may be confined to eastern Tamil Nadu, north Gujarat, north-west Rajasthan (including Sriganganagar, Bikaner, and Jaisalmer) and the Sundarbans region of West Bengal.
Above-Normal Rain in Second Week of July
The ECMWF now extends the wet session into the week July 6-13 when rainfall may remain normal to above normal over parts of southern and western Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, and West Bengal. Above-normal rainfall is also likely over west Madhya Pradesh, parts of east Gujarat, and east Rajasthan. Rainfall may, however, remain below normal over north Rajasthan, pockets of Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh, west Uttar Pradesh, besides Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and Tamil Nadu.
Post-Mid-July Outlook Turns Less Encouraging
Beyond mid-July, the ECMWF outlook turns less encouraging. Its projections for the rest of July and into the first 10 days of August suggest rainfall deficits could emerge across over the entire western half of the country.
Near-normal rainfall may largely be confined to East India and adjoining parts of North-West and Central India, covering Jammu and Kashmir-Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, East Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Vidarbha. In contrast, Rajasthan, Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, the entire west coast, and most of the South Peninsula are projected to receive below-normal rainfall, pointing to a possible weakening of the monsoon during the latter half of July.
Rainfall Distribution Summary
| Period | Regions with Normal/Above-Normal Rainfall | Regions with Below-Normal Rainfall |
|---|---|---|
| June 25 - July 1 | Parts of South Peninsula, North-East India | Rest of the country |
| July 2-8 | Almost entire country | None (widespread normal/above) |
| July 6-13 | Central, western, parts of northern India | Northern plains pockets, south-east coast |
| Post mid-July | East India, parts of NW & Central India | Western half, west coast, south peninsula |
Implications for Agriculture and Commodity Markets
For traders and procurement teams tracking Indian agricultural commodities, the two-week window of vigorous monsoon from late June to mid-July is critical for kharif sowing of crops such as rice, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton. The above-normal rainfall in key growing belts of Central India and the west coast during July 2-13 could accelerate planting after early-season delays. However, the projected rainfall deficits after mid-July over the western half — including Rajasthan, Gujarat, and most of the South Peninsula — raise concerns for rain-fed crops in those regions. Any sustained shortfall could pressure yields and affect domestic supply and import demand for commodities like pulses and oilseeds. The ECMWF and IMD outlooks will be closely watched by market participants for updates on the monsoon's performance, which directly influences crop production estimates and price expectations in Indian commodity markets. The next key data release will be the IMD's extended-range forecast for the latter half of July, which will help refine the risk of a seasonal slowdown.
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