The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has forecast a 97% probability that a strong El Niño event will persist into March 2027, according to its latest ENSO update published on July 21, 2026. The report, titled ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions, indicates that El Niño is now established and expected to strengthen through the end of the year.
Probability and Timing
According to the CPC, there is an 81% chance of a strong El Niño during October–December 2026, and a 20% chance that El Niño will be weak instead of very strong during that period. The overall probability of El Niño conditions lingering into early spring 2027 stands at 97%.
| Period | Probability | Type |
|---|---|---|
| October–December 2026 | 81% | Strong El Niño |
| October–December 2026 | 20% | Weak El Niño |
| Through March 2027 | 97% | El Niño persists |
Ocean Temperature Anomalies
The report notes that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Between August 2025 and February 2026, below-average SSTs were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Since mid-April 2026, above-average equatorial SSTs have strengthened across the east-central and eastern Pacific. Over the past four weeks:
- Equatorial SSTs were above average between the Date Line and the eastern Pacific Ocean.
- SSTs were below average west of the Date Line.
- Above-average SSTs have been observed north of the equator in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
- In the Atlantic Ocean, SSTs in the eastern equatorial Atlantic were below average.
- In the Indian Ocean, SSTs in the western and eastern Indian Oceans were above average.
Subsurface temperature anomalies showed negative values from mid-July 2025 to December 2025. From mid-December 2025, positive anomalies appeared and increased through late April 2026. They decreased from late April to late May 2026, then increased again from late May. In the past two months, subsurface temperatures have been above average in most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies
Since June 2026, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies have emerged:
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection/rainfall) have persisted over Indonesia.
- Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection/rainfall) have dominated the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
OLR is defined as the thermal infrared energy emitted from the Earth’s surface, oceans, and atmosphere into space. It acts as a cooling mechanism for the planet and is frequently used as a proxy to monitor atmospheric convection.
Implications for Commodity Markets
While the NOAA report itself does not directly address commodity impacts, the forecast of a prolonged strong El Niño is closely monitored by commodity analysts for its historical correlation with weather disruptions in key agricultural regions. Traders in agricultural commodities, energy, and softs will watch for potential effects on crop yields in Southeast Asia, Australia, and the Americas, as well as on energy demand patterns. The next key update will come from NOAA's subsequent ENSO outlooks as the event evolves.
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