The race to capitalise on the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is already underway, with some of the world’s largest tanker and LNG operators repositioning vessels towards the Gulf ahead of Friday’s planned signing of a peace agreement between the US and Iran in Geneva, according to Splash247.
Fleet Repositioning Underway
Shipowners appear increasingly confident that commercial traffic will soon resume through the vital waterway, even as military authorities continue to warn that the security situation remains fragile. Vessel tracking services show more than 75 tankers are currently heading towards the Middle East, with big names such as Sinokor and Maran Tankers Management to the fore, Splash247 reported.
A shipping markets report from SEB, a Scandinavian bank, stated: “A reopening of Hormuz is essential to prevent a collapse in the tanker market, and the opening will likely trigger a fixing frenzy and set the stage for a multi-year inventory restocking cycle.”
The LNG sector is making similar preparations. According to vessel tracking data cited by Splash247, Qatar has begun moving LNG carriers back towards the Middle East after weeks of inactivity or deployment elsewhere. At least four empty LNG vessels owned by Qatar have reversed course and are returning to the region, while another chartered vessel is also heading back.
Iranian Crude Exports Resume
Perhaps the clearest sign that the blockade is beginning to loosen comes from Iran itself. According to TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude exports have resumed for the first time in two months. The vessel tracking specialist reported that two National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) very large crude carriers (VLCCs), Diona and Hero 2, crossed the US Navy blockade perimeter carrying a combined 3.8m barrels of crude oil. A third NITC tanker, a suezmax loaded with approximately 1m barrels of crude, has also reportedly departed. Using AIS data corroborated by satellite imagery, TankerTrackers.com described the movements as Iran’s first crude exports since the naval blockade was imposed.
| Vessel | Type | Operator | Cargo (barrels) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diona | VLCC | NITC | 1.9m (shared) | Crossed blockade |
| Hero 2 | VLCC | NITC | 1.9m (shared) | Crossed blockade |
| Unnamed | Suezmax | NITC | ~1m | Departed |
Security Concerns Remain
Despite the growing vessel activity, military authorities remain cautious. The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) has lowered its threat assessment for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz from “critical” to “substantial”, the lowest level since the conflict began on February 28, Splash247 reported. However, the organisation stressed that risks remain elevated. “Maritime traffic continues under a substantial risk environment,” JMIC said in its latest advisory, warning that navigation interference, surveillance activity and short-notice disruptions remain possible. It added that “an attack is a strong possibility” despite noting that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps activity had become less volatile following announcement of the forthcoming US-Iran memorandum of understanding. US naval forces continue to maintain a significant presence in the area, which JMIC said was providing “stabilizing oversight”.
Geopolitical Risks Threaten Deal
For now, the biggest threat to a return to normality may not come from Tehran or Washington. Neither side has released the text of the agreement due to be signed in Geneva on Friday, and Iranian officials have repeatedly linked the deal to a cessation of Israeli military activity. Tehran has claimed Israel has already violated the understanding dozens of times since it was reached and warned of “harsh consequences”. At the same time, Israel appears to view the arrangement primarily as a bilateral US-Iran agreement rather than one that constrains its own actions. While vessel owners are positioning for a reopening, and Iranian exports are beginning to move again, a single escalation involving Israel could still derail the diplomatic breakthrough.
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist (as noted in the Splash247 report), stated: “Even as the market reacts to Hormuz opening headlines cleanly, the operational reality is likely to be messier.” The market is reacting, but the path to full commercial traffic remains uncertain.
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