The threat to oil tankers operating in the Middle East has reached its worst level since the Iran war began, according to analysts, after a renewed spate of attacks on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea compounded the near-collapse of Strait of Hormuz transits.
BBC News reported that Iran has denied Donald Trump's claim that it was in talks with the US over reopening the strait, but said it was speaking to Oman about securing the shipping lane. The warning follows a number of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, an alternative waterway that some tankers had been using since Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz transits collapse to single digits
Ship-tracking firm Kpler counted just eight ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and 11 on Saturday, compared with more than 100 per day before the war began, BBC News reported. A temporary peace deal with the US struck in early June had pushed numbers back up, but the resumption of strikes between the two countries roughly a month later has significantly reduced traffic again.
Many vessels are now "going dark" when crossing the strait, switching off their transponders to avoid detection, according to Kpler data.
| Location | Transit count | Transponders off | Normal level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz (Saturday) | 11 | not stated | 100+ per day pre-war |
| Strait of Hormuz (Sunday) | 8 | not stated | 100+ per day pre-war |
| Bab el-Mandeb (Saturday) | 28 commodity vessels | 6 | not stated |
Red Sea: a second front
For much of the war, some ships carrying oil from Saudi Arabia used an alternative shipping lane in the Red Sea, between the kingdom and west Africa, BBC News reported. That route is now under threat after a recent spate of attacks by Yemen's Houthi fighters on Saudi tankers.
The Iranian-backed Houthi militia announced what it called a blockade on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports on 20 July, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported several attacks on ships in the past week.
Kpler data shows 28 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Saturday, six of them with transponders off — an indication that they were trying to avoid detection. Not all vessels are deterred: total traffic sits at about 50% of pre-attack levels because the Houthi threat is targeted only at Saudi shipping. But the number of ships loading crude oil for export to Asia has dropped to about four per day, the lowest point since the start of the war.
Hormuz traffic has collapsed from more than 100 ships per day before the war to eight on Sunday, according to Kpler.
What analysts and carriers are saying
"In terms of threat to the trade of crude, we're at the worst period that we've been in since this crisis began," said Matthew Wright, an analyst at Kpler. He added: "Not only is the ongoing situation in the Strait of Hormuz constraining oil flows, but now a big factor that was helping to balance the market is now also under threat. It's a problem stacked on top of a problem."
Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko, a trade body representing tanker owners, said the industry was "facing a broadening, deteriorating, and increasingly complex security situation". He told BBC News: "We now have the high-risk area going up to Saudi Arabian waters and extending into parts of the Red Sea. So that's having another impact on the market, on freedom of navigation as well."
Container shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd said some of its vessels were still passing through the Red Sea but that it would "monitor developments closely and will adjust the network if circumstances change". A spokesperson warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened, most ships could probably leave the region fairly quickly, but restoring normal cargo flows would take much longer. "Services have been suspended and ships redeployed elsewhere, so a return to normal flows would most likely take three to four months."
Shipper and operator implications
For freight forwarders, ocean carriers and energy shippers, the immediate operational impact is a severe constraint on tanker capacity out of the Persian Gulf and through the Red Sea. With Hormuz transits at single digits and Bab el-Mandeb traffic at about half of pre-attack levels, cargo owners should expect extended transit times, potential war-risk surcharges, and limited availability of vessels on routes touching the region.
Hapag-Lloyd's three-to-four-month recovery estimate for restoring normal flows — even after a hypothetical reopening — signals that contingency plans should assume a prolonged disruption. Shippers moving crude or refined products from Saudi Arabia, the UAE or other Gulf states should evaluate alternative routing options and confirm whether their contracted carriers are still serving Red Sea ports, given the targeted nature of the Houthi threat.
Watch list
- Iran's stated talks with Oman over securing the shipping lane; Iran says no deal is imminent that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic.
- Continued reporting from the UK Maritime Trade Operations on attacks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb.
- Whether the temporary peace deal with the US is revived after the resumption of strikes.
- Any expansion of the Houthi blockade beyond Saudi shipping to other flag states or cargo types.
Sources:
