The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for over 100 days, triggering the largest supply disruption in oil market history according to the International Energy Agency, yet the true volume of crude escaping the blockade remains obscured by a surge in dark tanker operations.
World Trade Organization data shows a 95 percent reduction in crude oil shipments from Arabian Gulf ports and a 99 percent reduction in liquefied natural gas carriers, the WIRED report states. The IEA has called it "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Yet Brent crude trades at $87.55 per barrel—the lowest since before the conflict began.
The Dark Trade and Its Impact on Shipping Intelligence
A key operational factor for freight forwarders and tanker operators is the rise of the "dark trade"—vessels running without their AIS transponders on, moving at night, closer to the Omani border, sometimes with naval escort, according to Matt Stanley, head of market engagement at Kpler, the commodity intelligence and ship-tracking firm. This makes it difficult for logistics professionals to verify actual oil flows and plan shipping capacity.
"No one's experienced this kind of disruption," Stanley said. He notes that it is possible 100 million barrels made it through the Strait of Hormuz since the first of May. "When you put into context, pre-conflict, it was about 20 million barrels a day that was going through, so five days worth of oil, in a normal traffic environment, and it's taken over a month. 100 million barrels, it's a good number, but it's a relative drop in the ocean, literally, compared to previous traffic."
Despite the AIS gaps, analysts have detected some crude types in other markets. The UAE's Murban crude can be exported via Fujairah, outside the strait. Another type, Upper Zakum crude, cannot—yet one oil market analyst noted sightings of Upper Zakum in other markets. The scale of such diversions remains unknown.
Buffers Holding the Line – But for How Long?
Price stability stems from massive buffers. China has approximately 1.3 billion barrels in storage, drawing it down at around a million barrels per day, Stanley says. Chinese demand from May through July was about 7 million barrels a day, compared to 12.5 million barrels a day in December. The US, Brazil, and Canada have also stepped in to fill part of the void.
Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at FGE NexantECA, an energy and chemical advisory company, said: "The oil market responded to this outage significantly well in terms of cutting parts of demand. There is also a significant amount of stock that has come to market, but we doubt that they will continue to do that. We expect that by July [if the strait remains closed], things will change."
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Reduction in crude shipments from Arabian Gulf ports | 95% | WTO |
| Reduction in LNG carriers | 99% | WTO |
| China's strategic storage | ~1.3 billion barrels | Kpler |
| China's draw rate | ~1 million bpd | Kpler |
| Brent crude price (current) | $87.55/barrel | Market data |
| Global oil supply drop (March) | 10.1 million bpd | S&P Global CERA |
| OPEC+ production drop (March) | 9.4 million bpd MoM | S&P Global CERA |
Recovery Prospects and Shippers' Watch List
Analysts warn buffers will not last. One analyst noted stocks are approaching operationally critical levels—where oil in storage and additional supply needs replenishment. The US, currently acting as a swing producer, faces its own deadline as the end of the year approaches, when it will have to prioritize domestic production for heating.
"People looking at October, you really think that it would be sorted out by the middle of August," Stanley says. "That's what I think the market is hoping for."
Recovery of shut-in fields will take time. Analysis by S&P Global CERA estimates restart timelines of 10 weeks to seven months for fields shut down for two months. IEA executive director Fatih Birol has said more than 80 energy facilities have been damaged, and recovery "could take as long as two years." The UAE's national oil company estimates full Hormuz flows won't resume until 2027.
For freight forwarders and logistics operators, the closure means continued reliance on alternative routes (e.g., Fujairah for UAE exports), potential insurance premium spikes for vessels transiting the region, and careful monitoring of AIS gaps to assess real supply. The dark tanker trade will persist as long as the blockade remains, making traditional ship-tracking data unreliable. Shippers should prepare for extended disruptions and plan for contingency routing, especially for crude and LNG volumes that typically transit the strait.
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