India is preparing for the potential adverse impacts of El Nino on the kharif season, with the government announcing contingency plans to mitigate risks. Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan emphasized the need for preparation over worry, highlighting efforts to ensure seed availability and consider crop changes where necessary.
El Nino's Potential Impact
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, with rainfall expected to be around 92% of the long-period average. This comes as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict the emergence of El Nino conditions, which typically bring drier and hotter weather to India.
Government's Contingency Plans
The government is identifying districts for alternative crops and ensuring seed availability. ICAR Director General M L Jat noted the importance of crop diversification, suggesting a shift from rice to oilseeds and pulses to enhance self-reliance. Over 100 districts have been flagged for excessive fertilizer use, prompting calls for improved soil health management.
Agricultural Outlook
Despite weather challenges, India is on track to achieve a record foodgrain production of 376.56 million tonnes in the 2025-26 crop year, an increase of 18.8 million tonnes from the previous year. The focus on seed quality and data ecosystems is expected to raise productivity by 15-20%.
"Rather than worrying, preparation is required. Contingency plans will be made for affected districts and crop changes will be considered wherever necessary," said Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
| Year | Foodgrain Production (million tonnes) |
|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 357.76 |
| 2025-26 | 376.56 |
Price Outlook
The potential impact of El Nino on crop yields could lead to price volatility in agricultural commodities. Traders and procurement teams should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and government announcements closely.
