The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that the newly declared El Nino phase could weaken India's summer monsoon, putting rainfed crops such as rice and maize under stress during the critical kharif growing season, according to a statement published on the FAO website on June 15, 2026.
El Nino's Impact on South Asian Monsoon
The UN body stated that the new El Nino phase has officially begun. In Asia, the risk extends beyond fields to global markets, FAO said. "El Nino can weaken the summer monsoon across much of India, putting rainfed crops such as rice and maize under stress during the critical growing season," the agency noted on its website. The agricultural drought risk runs across South and Southeast Asia—from Pakistan and India through Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, and further east to the Philippines, Indonesia and Timor-Leste, FAO added.
The warning comes as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a stronger-than-usual monsoon cycle. FAO's analysis draws on 41 years of historical satellite imagery to trace where strong El Nino events have caused the most severe agricultural drought, the organization said.
Historical Precedent: The 2015-16 El Nino Experience
FAO highlighted the impact on India using the example of the 2015-16 El Nino. During that event, India's maize output fell by four per cent, and rice production dropped by one per cent, according to the agency. Across Southeast Asia, the same event led to losses of around 15 million tonnes of rice, pushing up prices and squeezing import-dependent countries.
The following table summarises the historical impacts cited by FAO:
| Region/Crop | Impact from 2015-16 El Nino | Source |
|---|---|---|
| India - Maize | Output dropped 4% | FAO |
| India - Rice | Production fell 1% | FAO |
| Southeast Asia - Rice | Losses of ~15 million tonnes | FAO |
Wider Drought Risks and Vulnerable Regions
FAO cautioned that more than 80 per cent of projected drought impacts are expected to fall on low- and middle-income countries. The agency warned that this El Nino cycle could prove more damaging than previous ones. "This isn't like previous El Ninos. The planet is much warmer today, and with conflict and food insecurity widespread, this will hit hardest in places that are already vulnerable and have limited coping capacity," said Jorge Alvar-Beltrán, FAO's Natural Resources Officer, as quoted by the organization.
When rainfall falls short, agriculture is hit first, Alvar-Beltrán added: "A farmer might first lose crops, then livestock and with that their entire livelihood."
Additional Stressors: Fertiliser and Energy Costs
FAO noted that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are also pushing up energy and fertiliser costs as farmers prepare for the sowing season. This adds an extra layer of cost pressure on agricultural inputs at a time when weather risks are already elevated.
Call for Early Action
The agency said early action could limit damage. In Southern Africa, a pre-season effort ahead of the 2023-24 El Nino directed nearly USD 31 million to more than two million people across seven countries, providing seeds, livestock support and early warning systems, FAO reported. "Early warning becomes effective prevention when it is acted upon timely and decisively," FAO stated.
Implications for Commodity Markets
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the FAO's warning signals potential supply tightness for rice and maize from India, a major exporter of both grains. The historical output drops, combined with the added risk from higher input costs due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, could support prices if the monsoon weakens as forecast. The agency's use of 41 years of satellite data and the WMO's stronger-than-usual monsoon forecast add weight to the risk assessment. Market participants will closely monitor monsoon progress and any policy responses from Indian authorities.
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