Asian shipping stocks rallied on Monday as investors bet a tentative US-Iran deal could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after 107 days of disruption, though industry experts warned any return to normal navigation will be gradual and far from guaranteed, according to Splash247.
Reports emerged yesterday that Washington and Tehran have reached a ceasefire-linked agreement to reopen the strait and suspend tolls. The deal is due to be signed on Friday, but major operational questions remain over mine clearance, traffic control, insurance, security arrangements and the durability of the ceasefire.
Stock Market Reaction and Industry Caution
The secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Arsenio Dominguez, welcomed news of the end of the conflict. "This signals a crucial return to peace, dialogue, multilateralism and diplomacy, and in particular, an important step toward restoring safety in this vital maritime corridor for seafarers and ships," stated a release from the UN body. However, Lars Jensen, chief executive of Vespucci Maritime, cautioned that the agreement should not be treated as a fait accompli. "It is not a final deal," he noted, adding there would be 60 days to get the details in place. Jensen has been providing a daily update on the Hormuz shipping crisis since the war erupted on February 28.
Operational Reality: Ships Stranded, Insurance Unresolved
For now, there is little evidence of commercial shipping returning at scale. Traffic through Hormuz remains almost non-existent today, with more than 500 vessels reported stranded and owners still awaiting clearer security guidance before committing ships to the waterway. INTERTANKO welcomed the US-Iran agreement, saying it should bring "welcome relief" to seafarers in the region. Managing director Tim Wilkins urged both governments to ensure Hormuz is "free from the threat of mines" and said navigation should return to the internationally recognised traffic separation scheme. Marine director Phillip Belcher added that, until the agreement is signed, ships needing to transit should take "a cautious approach" and conduct ship-specific risk assessments.
Winners and Losers by Shipping Segment
Splash247 analysis suggests the biggest operational winners from a credible reopening would be LNG carriers, LPG/VLGCs, Gulf container and feeder services, and product tankers, all of which have suffered from high insurance costs, waiting time, rerouting, storage and transhipment expenses. LNG stands to gain the most: Qatari exports have few realistic alternatives to Hormuz, and the strait normally handles more than a fifth of global LNG trade. LPG and Gulf feeder services would also benefit quickly as emergency routings and regional logistics costs unwind. The clearest earnings losers would be crude tanker owners, especially VLCCs in Middle East Gulf spot trades. The crisis has supported freight volatility, war-risk premia and tight tonnage availability. A credible reopening could sharply reduce those earnings supports over the coming weeks. Dry bulk would see a smaller global impact, though fertiliser-related trades and Gulf-exposed tonnage would benefit from the removal of delays and trapped ships.
| Shipping Segment | Expected Impact from Reopening |
|---|---|
| LNG carriers | Major positive (Qatar exports, 1/5 of global LNG) |
| LPG / VLGCs | Positive (emergency routings unwind) |
| Gulf container & feeder services | Positive (regional logistics costs drop) |
| Product tankers | Positive (rerouting costs reduce) |
| Crude tanker owners (VLCCs) | Negative (earnings supports removed) |
| Dry bulk (fertiliser trades) | Moderate positive (delays lifted) |
Human Cost and India's Response
The human cost of the crisis has continued to mount. Another Indian seafarer, 35-year-old Nishanth Uirthanathan, died last week from medical complications onboard the Celestial tanker at Oman's Duqm port. His death followed the killing of three Indian seafarers onboard the Settebello in a US military strike off Oman. India's Directorate General of Shipping has since advised recruitment and placement agencies to restrict the deployment of Indian seafarers to conflict areas, including the Gulf region and waters around Hormuz, until further notice. Emergency crew changes may still be carried out with crew consent.
Watch List
Operators should monitor the signing of the deal this Friday and subsequent developments in mine clearance and security clearance from insurers and flag states. Any delay or breakdown in the ceasefire could quickly re-escalate risks. The 60-day implementation window cited by Lars Jensen means full normalisation of shipping through the strait is likely weeks away, even under an optimistic scenario. Ships with cargoes destined for Gulf ports should continue to evaluate alternative routing and insurance options until the waterway is verified safe.
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