After months of disruption, oil exports from Iran have finally picked up following a peace deal between Tehran and Washington. According to shipping data cited by Bloomberg, a wave of 11 tankers carrying 20 million barrels of crude left the port of Chabahar, located on the Gulf of Oman. The vessels had previously been unable to sail into the Indian Ocean due to a US military blockade aimed at limiting Iran's access to oil revenues.
The Peace Breakthrough and the Cargo Movement
The rise in exports comes alongside Iran's continued efforts to regulate maritime movement through the Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf State Authority, which oversees transit operations, has published guidance requiring vessels to follow designated routes and setting out how tolls could be imposed on ships passing through the waterway. Most of Iran's oil exports are shipped to China, highlighting the country's importance as a destination for Iranian crude.
Chabahar has emerged as the most visible outlet for increased energy shipments since the memorandum of understanding signed on Wednesday. The port, located near Iran's border with Pakistan and outside the Persian Gulf, has seen the clearest evidence of additional oil flows despite expectations that the agreement would ease the movement of oil and gas across the wider region.
Supply Side: From Blockade to Exports
Prior to the deal, the US blockade had effectively halted Iranian crude from reaching international markets. The sudden release of 20 million barrels represents a significant increase in supply, though it remains to be seen how quickly the market absorbs this volume. The vessels are now navigating the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.
| Day | Non-Iranian Tankers Exiting Persian Gulf | Cargo Volume (barrels) |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday | Yes | Near 10 million |
| Friday morning | None observed | Not reported |
According to the report, traffic through the region appeared lighter on Friday morning. No non-Iranian tankers were observed heading out of the Persian Gulf, compared with Thursday when vessels carrying nearly 10 million barrels were either transiting or had already exited the Strait of Hormuz. The supertanker Tenzan, carrying a full cargo, was later spotted in the Gulf of Oman after apparently crossing the strait overnight.
Geopolitical Risks and Outlook
However, uncertainty remains over the longer-term outlook. Negotiations on a permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran, scheduled to begin in Switzerland on Friday, have been delayed. The postponement came after overnight clashes involving Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon. It remains unclear whether the delay will have any effect on shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.
Additional cargo movements may become apparent in the days ahead. Ships have increasingly been travelling through Hormuz with their transponders switched off, often following routes close to Oman's coastline to avoid detection. For commodity traders and analysts, the sudden release of Iranian crude could weigh on global oil prices, but the stalled peace talks and ongoing regional tensions introduce fresh supply risks. The key data points to watch are the progress of US-Iran negotiations and the volume of tankers exiting the Persian Gulf in the coming weeks.
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