The monsoon is poised for a fresh advance next week, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating favourable conditions for its further progression into parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and Chhattisgarh around Tuesday next, according to a report by The Hindu BusinessLine.
Monsoon Revival Expected Next Week
The expected revival is likely to be driven by development of a cyclonic circulation over the north-west Bay of Bengal off the Odisha-West Bengal coast. While some global weather models project its evolution into a low-pressure area, IMD’s guidance remains more conservative, suggesting only a weak circulation at this stage.
Weather System Development and Model Consensus
Model consensus points to strengthening monsoon flows from the Bay into Central India. A leading US model tracks the system westward from Odisha and West Bengal across Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh towards Konkan, Mumbai and South Gujarat, a path that is also supported by projected rainfall patterns.
IMD’s numerical guidance shows moisture-laden easterlies turning inland from the Bay and feeding into Central India, although it does not yet conclusively support the formation of a well-defined low-pressure area. The agency, however, has not ruled out the possibility of a weak ‘low’ developing towards the end of June.
Adding to the signal, the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service indicates the potential emergence of another circulation over the same region around July 1. Together, the forecasts suggest a favourable two-week period for monsoon activity over Central India.
Regional Rainfall Forecasts
Ahead of the revival, isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast over Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and West Madhya Pradesh for six days beginning Saturday. Along the west coast, rainfall activity is expected to strengthen from Monday, with fairly widespread to widespread rain over Konkan and Goa, including Mumbai, for four days. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers are likely over Saurashtra and Kutch for two days; and over East Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada during next six days.
| Region | Rainfall Forecast | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, West Madhya Pradesh | Isolated to scattered | Six days from Saturday |
| Konkan and Goa, including Mumbai | Fairly widespread to widespread | Four days from Monday |
| Saurashtra and Kutch | Isolated to scattered | Two days |
| East Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada | Isolated to scattered | Next six days |
| Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep | Fairly widespread to widespread | From Saturday |
| Coastal Karnataka | Fairly widespread to widespread | From Sunday |
| Interior Karnataka, parts of Andhra Pradesh | Increase intermittently | Later in the week |
| Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal | Heavy rainfall | This weekend |
| Kerala and Mahe | Heavy rainfall | Three days |
| Lakshadweep | Heavy rainfall | Sunday |
| Coastal Karnataka | Heavy rainfall | Five days from Sunday |
| Interior Karnataka | Heavy rainfall | Monday and Tuesday |
In the south, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is forecast over Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep from Saturday, extending to Coastal Karnataka from Sunday. Rainfall will also increase intermittently over Interior Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh later in the week. Heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal this weekend; Kerala and Mahe for three days; Lakshadweep on Sunday; Coastal Karnataka for five days from Sunday; and Interior Karnataka on Monday and Tuesday.
Implications for Central Indian Agriculture
The two-week rain window is critical for kharif sowing operations in Central India. A timely and well-distributed monsoon supports the planting of crops like soybean, cotton, pulses, and coarse cereals in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh. The expected revival, if it materializes, could alleviate concerns over early season dryness and support soil moisture levels. Traders and procurement teams will monitor the system’s evolution closely, as any deviation may affect crop acreage and yield expectations.
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