The Trump administration has quietly let the sanctions waiver for Russian crude oil expire, according to a Reuters report cited by Business Today. The expiry comes as the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and restoring Middle Eastern oil supplies to global markets. President Donald Trump had earlier this week hinted that sanctions on Russian oil could return once the Strait of Hormuz opens and normalises global oil supplies.
Waiver Expiration and US Policy
The US Treasury did not issue an extension on Wednesday for its sanctions waiver covering Russian seaborne oil, which expired at midnight. However, neither President Trump nor senior administration officials clarified whether the lapse would result in the sanctions being reinstated. The waiver had been introduced during the conflict with Iran to help vulnerable economies manage the energy crisis by allowing access to Russian oil. Speaking to reporters at the G7 summit in France, Trump declined to provide a definitive answer on the possible return of sanctions against Russia. He said the administration was monitoring the situation and watching how far oil prices decline, noting that crude prices had been falling sharply. A day earlier, Trump had suggested that ending the waiver and allowing sanctions to return could become feasible once oil supplies from the Middle East resumed normal flows. In the past, the US has occasionally allowed the waiver to lapse before renewing it a few days later.
Impact on India's Crude Oil Imports
For India, the sanctions waiver had been a significant benefit. India depends on the Middle East for a big portion of its crude oil supplies, but the waiver made Russian crude oil economical for purchase. Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, Moscow emerged as a key crude supplier for India, selling oil at discounted rates as Europe restricted imports. At one point, Russia accounted for around 40% of India’s crude oil imports. However, after the Trump administration's sanctions in late 2025, India’s imports of Russian crude started declining, with the lowest levels in several years seen in February. Then the Middle East conflict began, and India stepped up procurement of Russian crude, with imports reaching near peaks seen in 2023.
With the waiver now expired, a return of sanctions means a reorientation of India’s crude oil import strategy. Two factors work in the country’s favour: the crude oil basket is diversified to include around 40 countries, and second, once trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to normalcy, crude oil from the Middle East would be back to fill the gap left by declining Russian supplies.
Supply Dynamics and Diversification
The US-Iran peace deal opens new supply avenues. According to the US, Iran would be able to begin selling oil immediately after the signing ceremony. While restoring oil and gas flows to normal levels could take months, India will also get access to sanction-free Iranian crude. Additionally, Venezuela has emerged as an important crude oil supplier for India, and imports from the UAE continue to be strong despite Hormuz disruptions. Oil experts believe that Russian crude will continue to play an important role in India’s crude oil imports, even though oil from Lukoil and Rosneft is sanctioned.
| Supply Source | Status for India | Key Details |
|---|---|---|
| Russia (Lukoil, Rosneft) | Sanctioned; waiver lapsed | Previously provided ~40% of India's crude; imports rose during Middle East conflict |
| Iran | Sanction-free after peace deal | Immediate sales possible; flows may take months to normalise |
| Venezuela | Important supplier | Emerging as alternative |
| UAE | Strong imports | Continued despite Hormuz disruptions |
| Middle East (general) | Expected to resume via Strait of Hormuz | Will fill gap from Russian decline |
The coming weeks will be critical as market participants watch for clarity from the Trump administration on whether sanctions against Russian oil will be fully reinstated, and as India adjusts its procurement strategy to a post-waiver, post-conflict global oil landscape.
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