Topic
monetary-policy
Business Inflation Is Heating Up, But Don't Expect Another Crisis, BBC Says
BBC News analysis finds UK inflation is set to rise to around 3.5% later this year after energy bills climbed in the fallout from the war in Iran. Yet food inflation remains at 1.3%, wages are outpacing prices, and economists do not expect another crisis on the scale of the war in Ukraine.
Global borrowing costs hit fresh highs on inflation fears
Long-term borrowing costs across major economies hit fresh highs as inflation fears, rising oil prices, government debt levels and AI investment weigh on bond markets. US 30-year yields reached 5.33% and UK borrowing costs hit 5.85%.
Finance RBI to Close FCNR(B) Scheme on Aug 31 After $52.3 Billion Raised
The RBI will close its special FCNR(B) deposit scheme on Aug 31 after banks raised $52.3 billion in deposits by Aug 13. Total inflows under the USD-INR swap facility, including OFCBs and ECBs, reached $56.9 billion. SBI mobilised roughly $7.3 billion under the programme.
Business US wholesale inflation slows to 4.7% in July: What comes next for Fed, consumers
US producer price index rose 4.7% year-on-year in July, down from 5.5% in June, while core PPI eased to 4.2%. The data is likely to factor into Federal Reserve discussions ahead of the September meeting, even as fuel costs rebound and consumer price growth outpaces wages.
Business CPI data: Retail inflation moves up to 4.45% in July; stays above RBI's target for second month
India's retail inflation rose to 4.45% in July 2026, above the RBI's 4% target for a second straight month, with food inflation at 5.52%. The RBI kept policy rates unchanged, projecting full-year CPI inflation of 5.0% for 2026-27.
Business India July Inflation Accelerates to 4.45%, Unlikely to Alter RBI Rate Outlook
India's consumer price inflation accelerated to 4.45% in July, the second consecutive monthly reading above the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target, according to ET Retail. The print was nearly in line with Reuters poll expectations of 4.50%, while the RBI held its repo rate at 5.25% and cut its 2026/27 inflation forecast to 5%.
Finance Wall Street rallies as 23,000 job cuts boost hopes of softer Fed policy
Wall Street traded higher on Friday after US employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve may have more room before raising interest rates. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Dow gained 114 points, and the Nasdaq climbed 1%, while Treasury yields declined and Brent crude slipped to $82.07 a barrel.
Business RBI holds repo rate at 5.25%, lifts growth outlook, cuts inflation forecast
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% with a neutral stance, while raising the FY27 real GDP growth projection to 6.7% and cutting the core inflation forecast to 4.3%. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said greater clarity on inflation is needed before any policy action, signaling no immediate rate hike this year.
Finance Rupee Hits 1-Month Closing High Despite RBI Repo Rate Pause as Crude Oil Slides
The rupee settled at 95.1175 per dollar on Wednesday, its strongest close since July 7, after gaining 0.5% at the open. The RBI kept its policy rate and stance unchanged, trimming gains, while Brent crude's 12% slump over two sessions had supported the currency. Forward premiums fell, and Bank of Baroda expects a December repo rate hike.
Finance RBI: NRI Deposit Liquidity Surge Is Temporary, Set to Ease After Q2 Peak
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflows of over $36 billion from the special FCNR(B) deposit scheme will have a temporary and limited impact on liquidity, with surplus conditions expected to ease after peaking around the second quarter. The central bank has no target for dollar mobilisation and no proposal to advance or extend the scheme.
Business RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% Despite US-Iran Conflict and El Nino Risks
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained a neutral stance despite global headwinds from the US-Iran conflict and trade tariffs. The MPC noted inflation is driven mainly by food and fuel prices with little broad-based pressure, while GDP growth remains robust. RBI cut its FY inflation forecast to 5% and raised GDP growth to 6.7%.
Finance US and Japan Launch Rare Joint Intervention to Halt Yen Slide to 40-Year Low
Japan and the US confirmed a rare joint currency intervention to halt the yen's slide to a 40-year low. Bank of Japan data suggests Tokyo sold almost $59bn, while the US Treasury signalled further action. Both governments pledged to intervene again if disorderly moves continue.
Finance RBI Expected to Hold Rates on Aug 5 as Economists Flag Inflation, Rupee Stability
The RBI is expected to hold interest rates at its August 5 MPC meeting, according to a Business-Today report. SBI's chief economist sees CPI inflation averaging around 5% in FY27, while Goldman Sachs expects the rupee to stabilise, reducing the need for a hawkish policy shift.
Business Stock market outlook: RBI policy, earnings, Middle East tensions set Dalal Street mood this week
Business Today reports that the RBI's MPC meeting from August 3-5, June-quarter earnings from largecaps, and the US-Iran conflict will drive Dalal Street sentiment this week. Last week, the BSE Sensex gained 2,034.87 points (2.67%) and NSE Nifty rose 616.15 points (2.59%). Foreign investors returned as net buyers in July, investing Rs 20,200 crore in Indian equities.
Finance RBI's Dollar Swap Scheme Mop-Up Doubles to Over $40 Billion in Fortnight
The Reserve Bank of India's concessional dollar swap scheme has crossed $40.8 billion in forex mobilisation as of July 31, more than double the $17.4 billion raised in the first 42 days. FCNR(B) deposits alone exceeded the 2013 special window, despite higher US Treasury yields and tax-related headwinds for NRI investors.
Finance 'Buy $5-10 Billion Yen': Bessent's 'To Do' Note Hints at US Plan to Back Japanese Currency
A Reuters photograph of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's notepad at a Camp David cabinet meeting shows a 'To Do' entry to buy $5-10 billion yen, signaling US readiness to intervene in the currency market. The Financial Times reports the US has already joined Tokyo in yen support for the first time since 2011, while Japan may have spent $58.97 billion on Thursday alone.
Business UK Interest Rates Expected to Hold at 3.75% as Bank of England Maintains Cautious Stance Amid Global Uncertainty
The Bank of England is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, as uncertainty over global politics, the Middle East conflict, and inflation persists. The decision, due at 12:00 BST, will keep mortgage repayments stable for tracker borrowers but fixed-rate deals are rising, with the average two-year fixed rate at 5.62%.
Business US Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady as Kevin Warsh-Led FOMC Maintains 3.5-3.75% Range
The Federal Open Market Committee, led by Chair Kevin Warsh, voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% following its July 28-29 meeting. The decision reflects persistent inflation above the 2% target, geopolitical uncertainties from the Middle East conflict, and volatile oil prices. The Fed's statement noted solid economic expansion but highlighted supply shocks and tariff-related pressures.
Business US Interest Rates Held for Fifth Consecutive Meeting as Fed Votes 9-3
The Federal Reserve held US interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth time in a row, as expected. Policymakers voted 9-3 to maintain the rate, despite inflation easing to 3.5% in June, still above the 2% target. Uncertainty over the Middle East conflict's impact on oil prices clouds the outlook.
Finance Oil Price Volatility and RBI's Steady Hand Stabilise Rupee Ahead of August MPC Meeting
The Indian rupee is entering a stable phase ahead of the RBI's August MPC meeting, with analysts ruling out sharp depreciation. Brent crude below $105 limits USD/INR below 97.50, while the RBI prioritises managing volatility over defending specific levels. Rising crude inflation may delay rate cuts.
Finance RBI: Improving Liquidity Supporting Robust Credit Growth Amid Global Uncertainties
The Reserve Bank of India's latest State of the Economy report states that improving liquidity conditions are supporting robust credit growth, even as India's external sector remains steady with an improving outlook aided by foreign investment inflows. The central bank noted that India has navigated external uncertainties well, underpinned by healthy demand and resilient industrial and services sectors. Retail inflation edged up to an 18-month high of 4.4% in June.
Finance Bank of England Holds UK Interest Rates at 3.75% as War with Iran Stalls Cuts
The Bank of England held UK interest rates at 3.75% for the fourth consecutive time in June 2026, maintaining the lowest level since February 2023. The decision comes as the US-Israeli war with Iran has pushed up global energy and fuel costs, stalling earlier expectations of rate cuts. CPI inflation fell to 2.6% in the year to June 2026, down from 2.8% in May, but the central bank warns that higher energy prices have already built inflationary pressure.
Business UK Inflation Drops to 2.6% in June as Fuel and Food Prices Ease
UK inflation fell to 2.6% in the year to June 2026, down from 2.8% in May, driven by lower fuel and food prices, according to the Office for National Statistics. The data offers some respite for businesses and consumers, though inflation remains elevated.
Finance RBI Absorbs Net Liquidity of ₹70,888 Crore from Banking System in July 17 Operations
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) absorbed net liquidity of ₹70,888.18 crore from the banking system as of July 17, 2026, according to its Money Market Operations data. The central bank conducted a 3-day Variable Rate Repo (VRR) at 5.26% and received ₹152,120 crore under the Standing Deposit Facility at 5.00%.
Business Era of Cheap Borrowing May Be Over as World Enters 'New Macro Regime,' Moody's Warns
According to a Moody's Ratings report, the global economy has entered a new macro regime marked by structurally higher interest rates, sustained investment in AI and defence, and elevated geopolitical risks. Bond yields have risen to pre-crisis levels, and capital is flowing to policy-backed sectors. The outlook hinges on AI productivity gains and stable geopolitical conditions.
Business RBI Governor Malhotra Signals Patience on Inflation, Credit Growth Spurt
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra signaled the central bank is unlikely to tighten policy in response to elevated inflation and strong credit growth, attributing price pressures to supply-side factors and noting no immediate distress in fast-growing loan segments. CPI is projected at about 5.1% this year, slightly above target but driven by specific sectors.
Finance Ex-RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and Two Other Indians Join US Federal Reserve Policy Review Panels
The US Federal Reserve has appointed former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, Harvard economist Raj Chetty, and Microsoft executive Asha Sharma to separate task forces reviewing its monetary policy framework. The panels, announced by Chairman Kevin Warsh, will examine balance sheet policy, data quality, productivity and jobs, communications, and inflation frameworks. The appointments signal an effort to incorporate diverse expertise as the Fed reassesses its tools and methods.
Finance Bank of England Chief Economist Says Interest Rates May Need to Rise This Year
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill indicated that interest rates may need to rise this year to control inflation, currently at 2.8% above the 2% target. Pill was among a minority of MPC members voting for a rate increase in June. He cited lower economic speed limits and productivity slowdowns, particularly in Wales, as reasons for potential tightening.
Business Rising Spot Rates Mask Persistent Cost Pressures in Trucking Industry, Warns FreightWaves Analysis
Spot rates in the trucking industry are up 15% year-over-year in mid-2026, the strongest gain since early 2022. However, costs remain stubbornly high, with ATRI reporting a record all-in cost of $2.26 per mile and negative 2.3% average operating margin for truckload carriers. Labor and insurance continue to climb, warning operators against complacency.
Business India's Transition from WPI to PPI: Strengthening Inflation Measurement for Better Policy Making
India is transitioning from the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) to a Producer Price Index (PPI), with the first release based on the 2022-23 base year. The PPI addresses WPI's shortcomings, including inclusion of indirect taxes and lack of service sector coverage, and will improve inflation measurement for policy making. Businesses using WPI for indexation and contracts have a five-year transition period to adjust.
Business IMF Chief Economist Warns AI Boom Could Fuel Inflation Through Supply and Demand Channels
International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Bloomberg that the artificial intelligence boom is generating inflationary pressures through both supply chain bottlenecks and a demand-side wealth effect. He pointed to recent price increases from Apple and Microsoft as evidence, and warned that the inflation story is just beginning, while also flagging energy and fiscal risks.
Commodities Gold Heads for First Weekly Rise in Five on Easing Fed Rate-Hike Bets After Weak Jobs Data
Gold rose more than 1% on Friday, heading for its first weekly gain in five weeks, after softer-than-expected US jobs data lowered expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Spot gold hit $4,177.31 per ounce, while US futures climbed to $4,190.70. Traders now see a 54% chance of a September rate hike, down from 66% before the data.
Commodities Gold Gains Strategic Importance as Central Banks Hedge Against Geopolitical Risks
A new OMFIF survey reveals that central banks globally are increasing gold holdings as a strategic hedge against geopolitical risks. A net 30% plan to raise allocations in the next two years, with 51% citing geopolitical protection. Meanwhile, spot gold has slipped to $4,008.94 amid expectations of Fed rate hikes.
Finance Supreme Court blocks Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook in 5-4 ruling
The US Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to block President Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, stating the administration did not provide sufficient due process. The case returns to lower courts where the administration must prove mortgage fraud allegations. The decision is seen as affirming the Fed's independence.
Finance Banks Borrow ₹16,800 Crore at RBI VRR Auction, Signaling Comfortable Liquidity Conditions in Banking System
Banks borrowed only ₹16,800 crore from the Reserve Bank of India at its four-day Variable Rate Repo (VRR) auction, against the notified amount of ₹50,000 crore, indicating comfortable liquidity conditions. The cut-off rate stood at 5.26%, marginally above the policy repo rate of 5.25%, according to News on AIR.
Trade Finance US Dollar's Dominance in Global Trade Examined in BBC Podcast on Currency Power
The BBC podcast 'Rethink' investigates the US dollar's central role in global trade, from Bretton Woods to the Nixon shock, and discusses challenges from China and digital currencies. Trade finance professionals should note implications for sanctions and FX risk.
Finance RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra Says It's 'Premature' to Discuss Rate Hike Amid Persistent Global Uncertainty
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said it is premature to talk about a rate hike, pushing back against market expectations. He emphasized the central bank's data-dependent stance and noted that easing West Asia tensions have lowered crude oil prices, supporting growth and inflation moderation. Inflation remains below 4% target with subdued core inflation at 2.4%.
Finance RBI Governor Malhotra Calls Rate Hike Talk ‘Premature’ Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty, Crude Volatility
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra has pushed back against expectations of an imminent rate hike, calling such talk 'premature' given the fragile US-Iran truce and uncertainty over crude oil prices. The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously on June 5 to hold the repo rate at 5.25% after a full percentage point of cuts since February 2025. The MPC also revised down its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.9% and raised its inflation projection to 5.1% from 4.6%. Malhotra highlighted that the central bank is monitoring monsoon rainfall and crude prices, with cumulative rainfall 43% below normal as of June 22.
Finance Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75% as Energy Uncertainty Persists
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to hold interest rates at 3.75%, with Megan Greene and Huw Pill dissenting in favor of a 4% rate. Governor Andrew Bailey cited encouraging oil price drops but cautioned about inflationary pressure from high energy costs. Inflation remains at 2.8%, with expectations of a 3.25% peak later this year. The recent US-Iran peace deal may ease supply concerns through the Strait of Hormuz.
Business Alan Greenspan, architect of modern US economy and former Fed chair, dies aged 100
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has died at 100. He served from 1987 to 2006, presiding over a period of sustained growth but also facing criticism for policies that led to the dot-com bubble and subprime mortgage crisis. His free-market philosophy, influenced by Ayn Rand, left a lasting imprint on the American economy.
Finance Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% for Fourth Consecutive Meeting
The Bank of England is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, according to analysts. The UK inflation rate remains above target but has not risen as high as many feared due to the US-Israel war with Iran. Oil prices have dropped after a peace deal, potentially easing energy price pressures, though domestic gas and electricity prices are expected to rise with the next Ofgem price cap in July.
Finance Kevin Warsh-led FOMC Keeps Rates Unchanged, Projects Hike by Year-End, Raises Inflation Forecast
The Federal Reserve, under new chair Kevin Warsh, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. The Summary of Economic Projections showed 18 of 19 officials expect at least one rate increase by year-end, while the central bank raised its inflation forecast, projecting PCE inflation at 3.6% by end-2026. Inflation currently stands at 4.2%, a three-year high, driven by fuel costs.
Business Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rate to 1%, Highest Since 1995
The Bank of Japan raised its main interest rate to 1% from 0.75%, the highest since 1995, as global energy prices and the Iran war fuel inflation. Governor Kazuo Ueda missed the meeting due to a liver infection, but the BOJ continues its gradual tightening path started in March 2024.
Finance Rupee rallies to five-week high on crude oil plunge; RBI measures add to momentum
The Indian rupee strengthened to a five-week high of 94.71 against the US dollar on Monday, supported by a sharp drop in crude oil prices after a preliminary US-Iran agreement and by RBI measures to attract dollar inflows. Traders and economists see further support for the currency, though the central bank's willingness to allow gains remains a key factor.
Finance RBI to inject liquidity via Rs 50,000 crore repo auction ahead of MPC meeting
The Reserve Bank of India will conduct a Rs 50,000 crore repo auction to inject liquidity ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, according to a report by the TOI Business Desk on June 2, 2026. No further details were provided in the original report.
Finance Government Extends Tenure of RBI Deputy Governor Swaminathan J for Two Years
The central government has reappointed Swaminathan Janakiraman as RBI Deputy Governor for two years from June 26, 2026. He was originally appointed in June 2023. The decision maintains the statutory composition of four deputy governors under the RBI Act, 1934.
Finance After RBI Measures, Banks Offer Up to 7% on Dollar Deposits, Boosting Arbitrage for Trade Finance
Following the Reserve Bank of India's free hedging window, banks are offering up to 7.1% on Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits. Yes Bank, AU Small Finance Bank, and Karur Vysya Bank lead with rates exceeding 7%, while larger peers offer around 6%. The development opens an arbitrage between offshore borrowing costs and onshore returns, with implications for trade finance and forex management for importers and exporters.
Business At 4.2%, US Inflation Posts Biggest Gain in Three Years, Fed Rate Path Affected
The US consumer price index increased 4.2% in the 12 months through May, the largest gain since April 2023, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Surging energy prices amid the West Asia conflict and renewed US-Iran tensions contributed to the rise, giving the Federal Reserve cover to keep interest rates unchanged into 2027. Wall Street indexes fell, with the S&P 500 tech index down 1.6%.
Business Why the US economy keeps defying the odds: corporate investment and energy resilience drive outperformance
The US economy continues to grow at a steady pace despite global shocks such as trade tariffs, immigration changes, and Middle East conflict. Corporate capital expenditure remains high at 13.9% of GDP, productivity has risen, and energy independence from fracking has reduced vulnerability to oil price spikes. Cultural attitudes toward risk-taking and structural differences with Europe further explain the divergence.
Business UK Base Rate Held at 3.75% as War in Iran Upends Rate Cut Expectations
The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% for the third time, the lowest since February 2023, as the economic impact of the war in Iran upends expectations for further cuts. Sustained higher inflation could force up to six rate rises, potentially bringing the base rate to 5.5%, but weak jobs market and sluggish growth complicate the outlook.
Commodities Gold Set for Weekly Loss as Inflation, Rate Hike Fears Persist
Gold prices declined on Friday, heading for a weekly loss as concerns over inflation and potential US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes pressured the market. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,191.17 per ounce, while US gold futures rose 2.4% to $4,212.70. The price action was driven by geopolitical headlines, including President Trump's decision to call off military strikes on Iran.
Finance Rupee Strengthens as RBI Unveils Measures Amid Middle East Tensions
The Indian rupee appreciated by 50 paise to 95.24 against the US dollar following the RBI's announcement of measures to attract foreign capital. These steps aim to bolster India's balance of payments and support the rupee amid Middle East tensions.
Commodities Polymer Notes: India's Potential Shift in Currency Material
The Reserve Bank of India is exploring the introduction of polymer currency notes to improve durability and security. This move could significantly reduce printing costs and counterfeiting risks.
Business RBI Rejects Treasury Bill Bids, Signals Potential Rate Cut
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rejected bids for 182-day and 364-day treasury bills, accepting only 91-day bills at a 5.56% yield. This move suggests the RBI's intent to lower interest rates amid rising short-term yields and a widening spread between treasury bill yields and the policy rate.
Finance RBI MPC Meeting: Rate Decision Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions
The Reserve Bank of India's MPC is expected to maintain the repo rate amid inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. Economists predict potential rate hikes later in FY27.
Finance RBI Balance Sheet Expands Amid Investment Surge
The Reserve Bank of India's balance sheet expanded by 20.6% to 91.97 lakh crore rupees, driven by domestic and foreign investments. This growth impacts trade finance and international business costs.
Business RBI MPC to Adjust Inflation and Growth Forecasts Amid Rupee Slide
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to adjust its inflation and growth forecasts in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions and a depreciating rupee. The central bank may raise its inflation forecast to 5% and lower GDP growth to 6.5%.